The State of the Union, 2011

As 2010, an eventful political year, draws to a close, here are some predictions for what we can expect in 2011.

A Republican Congress

On Election Day 2010, the Republicans picked up an impressive 63 seats in the House of Representatives to become the new majority. This means that John Boehner has wrested the Speaker's gavel away from Nancy Pelosi, and he will set the agenda accordingly. At the top of his list is repealing the health care bill that narrowly passed in the House and Senate earlier this year. Judges around the country have started to rule that the provision within the bill which requires Americans to purchase health insurance is unconstitutional, which gives the Republicans another arrow in their quiver. Look for a tough fight over this issue in 2011.

A Sluggish Recovery

In June 2009, economists officially declared that the American recession was over. This was news, and still is, to millions of unemployed Americans who were laid off or graduated into a harsh economy. At the point that the recession "ended," the national unemployment rate was 9.4%. In December 2010, unemployment now stands at 9.8% (not counting individuals who are eligible to work, but aren't looking) and the social costs of long-term unemployment in the world's largest economy are too expensive to ignore. Liberal policy thinkers and economists hope that pumping more public funds into the economy will help create jobs, while conservative economists believe that tax cuts and giving more free rein to business interests will be the real stimulus. Unless unemployment miraculously plummets to pre-2008 levels sometime during 2011, look for it to be a constant topic of political conversation all year long.

A President Trying for a Comeback

During the press conference he held the day after the Democrats' midterm defeat, President Obama ruefully admitted that he and his party had taken a "shellacking" at the polls. In order to improve his standing among independent voters (voters who are not committed to one major party or the other, but make their choices on an election-by-election basis) Obama has already made conciliatory gestures to the Republicans. The most significant of these has been compromising on extending the Bush tax cuts for wealthy taxpayers, which has prompted quite a bit of grumbling among Democrats.

Early in 2011 (or perhaps at the very end of 2010) look for President Obama to urge Congress to repeal "don't ask, don't tell," a policy against gays openly serving in the military that was put in place during the Clinton administration. Getting rid of this policy, which Democrats have long condemned as out of date, might help Obama get cozy with his own party again, and prevent a Democratic challenger from rising in 2012.

The picture used for the front page of this article was taken from The Washington Independent.